By Ryan Casey Stephens, FPQP®
Special Contributor
It’s mid-August in Texas — the time for beaches, splash pads, sprinklers, and sand castles. It’s time to squeeze in that last-minute vacation before school or drink by the swimming pool. It’s the season when tiny bare feet of children race to escape hot concrete and jump to splash in, and the feet of adults typically race to buy their next home. But in typical 2022 fashion, that dynamic, among many things is upside down. Some of the inversions are good news, while others aren’t. Let’s examine both in this week’s Three Things to Know.
You Don’t Need Goggles to See This Trend
July’s Redfin report is out and reveals that last month was the sixth in a row of bidding war declines. Last month just 44.3 percent of their offers came against opposition. The month prior that number was just over half at 50.9 percent. And one year ago 63.8 percent faced competitive offers. The fact that nearly 20 percent more of their offers are taken unopposed may not perfectly reflect the housing market here in Dallas and Fort Worth, but it might be a telling portrait of the broader picture. What do you think? Is this an effect of inflation or recession fears, or will it pick back up after the kids are back in school? Leave me a comment and let me know your thoughts!
Import Costs Capsize
Now here’s a headline that makes me want to say, “Ahoy!” Import prices were down 1.4 percent last month. This welcome news might be a signal that the pirate ship we call inflation, which has stolen much of our gold, might be beginning to weaken and sink. Here’s a technical tidbit: this occurs because the Fed rate hikes strengthen the U.S. Dollar against other currencies.
Housing Report Week Here Like a Tsunami
This week brings the results of several important reports: Existing Home Sales, Housing Permits and Starts, and the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. I wonder if you intuitively sense, like me, that these reports will show more declines in real estate volume and sentiment around the nation. I feel as though I’m watching the water recede from the beach, knowing the tidal wave is just behind. Only time will tell what effect this will have on rates, and just how long it will last.
Ryan Casey Stephens FPQP® is a mortgage banker with Watermark Capital. You can reach him at [email protected].
