Oh man, I’ve got to start this post with a quote:
“The back to the city” meme appeals to urban boosters and reporters but in reality the numbers behind it are quite small. A 2011 survey by the real estate advisory firm RCLCO found that among affluent empty nesters, 65% planned to stay in their current home, 14% expected to look for a resort-type residence, and only 3 percent would opt for a condominium in the core city. Most of those surveyed preferred living spaces of 2,000 square feet or more. RCLCO concluded that the empty nester “back to the city” condominium demand was 250,000 households nationwide, a lucrative but small market out of the 4.5 million empty nester households in the metropolitan areas studied.
250,000 nation-wide? I found this story by my pal Joel Kotkin to be very interesting and worth a mention or five. First of all, where ARE the most Baby Boomers living now? They currently make up 15 percent of the nation’s population, that figure expected to expand to 21 percent.
Answer: Tampa-St. Pete, Pittsburgh, Tucson, Miami, Buffalo, Cleveland, Rochester, Providence, Hartford, St. Louis and interestingly, Birmingham, Alabama, probably because of its manufacturing history. Two sand states and the rust belt.
The cities with the smallest percentage of Baby Boomers are Austin, Salt Lake City, Houston, DALLAS, and Raleigh, NC.
Why is this so important?
Because Baby Boomers, God love us, have had our day in the sun. As we get older, we consume less, work less, cost more in terms of health care (unless we eat right & exercise), and, with the exception of Donald J. Drumpf, work less. (See our latest Interview with an Architect for a profile of a local talent who specializes creating homes that allow people to age in place.)
So where seniors move and live shapes America’s future geography and the economics of the locales:
In some places, notably in the Rust Belt, an aging population may suffer from the lack of young people to generate new wealth, pay taxes or provide them with services. In many others, notably in the Sun Belt, areas now built around youthful migration will have to prepare to accommodate many more aging people. And perhaps the biggest challenges will be felt by suburbs that, built for young families, now have to accommodate a growing senior population.
Too many old folks, not enough young ones to maybe even care take for them?
Interesting how Kotkin says we have always associated change with the movements and desires of the young, but in the 21st century, it may be the senior citizens who are directing the way American communities fare and adapt. After all, we have the most dinero.
So I find it intriguing, but not super surprising, to learn that a very small percentage — barely 2 percent — of empty nesters seek an urban locale. Most boomers, says Kotkin, move to the periphery of town or out of town completely. In fact, a 2012 National Association of Realtors survey found that the vast majority of buyers over 65 years old looked for homes in suburban areas, followed by rural locales. “As age increases among recent home buyers, the rate of owning more than one home also increases.”
In contrast, relatively few seniors are likely to give up their homes for condos in the city center; a study by the Research Institute for Housing America suggested that barely 2 percent of all “empty nesters” seek an urban locale.
Of course there are exceptions, and I think the higher net worth look to have homes in urban areas as well as vacation homes they can jet to.
Another interesting note: seniors don’t want small living spaces. (Where are we going to put all our junk?) Note what Kotkin said: they want living spaces of 2000 square feet or more. Donna Smith at The Stoneleigh says it’s more like 3,500 to 4,000 square feet.
I know you have heard me say here repeatedly that many buyers at The Residences at The Ritz Carlton Dallas, Museum Tower, The Stoneleigh, and now Bleu Ciel are joining two and sometimes three units. That’s what happened at my dream pad. Museum Tower is more than 50% sold now and much of that comes from current owners who love it so much they are expanding units, snapping up two.
But there is another set of seniors/boomers who want to get as far away from the city as possible. Why? Taxes. There is no better focus group than the hot tub after skiing, especially in SnowBird, Utah, which is a male skiers paradise. While I soaked away my ski shins last week I over heard an intense discussion of how the best way to plan retirement real estate was to move your largest home out of the city and to the lowest priced an TAXED community you could find — rural — while maintain the smallest possible pad in the city, where the taxes are higher.
Alas, I’ve seen a lot of large homes in Dallas get snapped up by boomers age 60 or older who enjoy designing, building out and creating a large next no matter how empty it may be. But most move to the south and warmer climate where housing is cheaper and there is less shoveling. Others move to be closer to their children.
Age, unfortunately, is creeping up on all of us:
In the coming decades, the United States is going to look a lot greyer. By 2050, the number of Americans over 65 will almost double to 81.7 million, with their share of the overall population rising to 21 percent from roughly 15 percent now, according to Census projections. More than 10,000 baby boomers are turning 65 every day.
Where seniors move for their twilight years will shape America’s future fabric immensely. I wish I could stick around long enough to see how Gen X does it, or the Millennials. In any case, here are the urban areas where the Old Farts Baby Boomers are multiplying the fastest — moving in to be right next to the youth:
No. 1: Atlanta
Growth In Senior Share Of Population, 2010-14: 20.3%
Senior Share Of Population (over 65), 2014: 10.8%
Rank Among Major U.S. Cities By Pop. Share: 48th
No. 2: Raleigh
Growth In Senior Share Of Population, 2010-14: 18.1%
Senior Share Of Population (over 65), 2014: 10.6%
Rank Among Major U.S. Cities By Pop. Share: 49th
No. 3: Las Vegas
Growth In Senior Share Of Population, 2010-14: 17.7%
Senior Share Of Population (over 65), 2014: 13.3%
Rank Among Major U.S. Cities By Pop. Share: 27th
No. 4: Portland
Growth In Senior Share Of Population, 2010-14: 17.4%
Senior Share Of Population (over 65), 2014: 13.3%
Rank Among Major U.S. Cities By Pop. Share: 27th
No. 5: Jacksonville
Growth In Senior Share Of Population, 2010-14: 17.1%
Senior Share Of Population (over 65), 2014: 14.2%
Rank Among Major U.S. Cities By Pop. Share: 16th
No. 6: Denver
Growth In Senior Share Of Population, 2010-14: 16.4%
Senior Share Of Population (over 65), 2014: 11.7%
Rank Among Major U.S. Cities By Pop. Share: 46th
No. 7: Austin
Growth In Senior Share Of Population, 2010-14: 16.3%
Senior Share Of Population (over 65), 2014: 9.4%
Rank Among Major U.S. Cities By Pop. Share: 53rd
No. 8: Phoenix
Growth In Senior Share Of Population, 2010-14: 15.7%
Senior Share Of Population (over 65), 2014: 14.2%
Rank Among Major U.S. Cities By Pop. Share: 16th
No. 9: Sacramento
Growth In Senior Share Of Population, 2010-14: 15.6%
Senior Share Of Population (over 65), 2014: 13.9%
Rank Among Major U.S. Cities By Pop. Share: 21st
No. 10: Tucson
Growth In Senior Share Of Population, 2010-14: 14.7%
Senior Share Of Population (over 65), 2014: 17.7%
Rank Among Major U.S. Cities By Pop. Share: 3rd
